Published October 11, 2026 in Market Update

Some parts of the buy box are getting tighter while others are easing

By Andrew Monaghan

Real estate, Primary buy box (DOTW)

Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings had price cuts in September, the highest share since October 2022. Here, the story is more specific. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3,752 homes sold across the primary buy box in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 2.8% from the same months of 2025. But that overall number hides very different conditions ZIP by ZIP. Supply runs from 2.3 months in one part of the market to 4.8 months in another. That gap is the whole story.

These numbers cover the three months ending August 31, 2026. They are real counts from the Real Estate Data Aggregator, not national estimates.

How tight is your ZIP? Months of supply, ZIP by ZIP

Months of supply tells you how long it would take to sell every home currently listed, at the current pace of sales. Below 3 months leans toward sellers. Above 4 months gives buyers more room to negotiate.

85375 is the tightest part of the market. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted just 2.3 months of supply there, down 0.7 months from a year ago. Homes for sale fell 27.2% year over year. That is a meaningful shift toward sellers, even as the median price dipped 2.7% to $365,000.

On the other end, 85388 had 4.8 months of supply. That is the loosest in the buy box. Buyers there have more time and more choices. The median sale price was $465,500, up 2.8% from a year ago, so sellers are still holding value, but the pace is slower.

The tighter end: where supply is below 3.2 months

85308 is the tightest for speed. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median days on market there at 50, down 8 days from a year ago. Nearly 3 in 10 homes (27.1%) went under contract within two weeks of listing. Sellers in 85308 are pricing close to list and getting close to it back: the average sale came in at 98.6% of list price.

85306 also sits at 3.1 months of supply. The median price there rose 6.3% to $425,000. And 23% of homes sold above list price, the highest share of any ZIP in the buy box. That is real pressure on buyers who want to compete there.

The looser end: where buyers have more room

85388 has the most supply in the buy box at 4.8 months. 85340 is close behind at 4.5 months, and 85086 sits at 4.3 months. These are not distressed markets. Homes are still selling, and sale-to-list ratios are holding near 98%. But buyers have time to look, compare and negotiate.

85087 stands out. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the average sale at 95% of list price there, the lowest in the buy box. That is a real discount from asking. Median days on market was 82. If you are a buyer with time, that ZIP is worth a close look.

85086 had 4.3 months of supply and a median price of $635,000, down 1.6% from a year ago. Sale to list was 96.9%. Homes for sale fell 9.4%, so inventory is tightening slowly, but it has not caught up to the pace of sales yet.

What the national picture adds

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% as of October 8, 2026. Realtor.com reported that mortgage rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025. That matters because higher rates slow buyers down, which is part of why some ZIPs are sitting longer.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. That is a slower pace than what some ZIPs here are seeing on the upside, and a softer picture than the drops showing up in others.

Speed: which ZIPs are moving fastest

Let me correct that chart. Here are the actual figures from the Real Estate Data Aggregator for the three months ending August 31, 2026.

What this means if you are selling

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 4,479 homes for sale across the buy box, down 8.3% from a year ago. Fewer homes for sale overall is good news for sellers. But supply varies so much by ZIP that a price that works in 85375 may sit too long in 85388. Price for your ZIP, not the overall market.

In the tighter ZIPs, 85308 and 85306, homes priced well are going under contract in two weeks at rates above 27%. In the looser ZIPs, that share drops below 20%. The difference is not the buyers. It is the pricing.

What this means if you are buying

With Freddie Mac's 30-year rate at 7.40%, every dollar of purchase price costs more to carry. That makes the looser ZIPs worth a serious look. In 85087, the Real Estate Data Aggregator showed homes selling at 95% of list price on average. In 85086, it was 96.9%. Those are real savings compared to ZIPs where homes regularly close at 98% to 99% of list.

New listings across the buy box came in at 3,973 for the period, up 1% from a year ago. Supply is not flooding in. But in the right ZIPs, buyers are not fighting as hard as they were.

One more thing worth saying: these numbers cover whole ZIP codes. One street inside a ZIP can read very differently from the ZIP overall. A cluster of new builds, a school boundary or even a single busy road can shift the picture. If you want to know what is happening on your specific block, that takes a closer look.