Published October 25, 2026 in Market Update

Some parts of the buy box are still moving much faster than others

By Andrew Monaghan

Real estate, Primary buy box (DOTW)

The one fact that matters most right now: supply is not even across this buy box. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 4,479 homes for sale across the full buy box in the three months ending August 31, 2026. That number is down 8.3% from a year before. But that overall drop hides a wide spread from one ZIP code to the next.

Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings nationally had price cuts in September, the highest share since October 2022. That tells you sellers in many markets are adjusting. Whether you need to do the same depends almost entirely on which part of this buy box you are in.

How tight is supply where you live?

The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows months of supply running from 2.3 in Sun City West (85375) to 4.8 in part of Surprise (85388). That is more than two months of difference inside the same buy box. A tighter spot means less room for a buyer to negotiate. A looser one means pricing has to be sharper.

Speed: some homes are going fast, others are sitting

The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the median home in Glendale (85310) sat on the market 46 days. In Sun City West (85375) the median was 80 days, and in Surprise (85387) it was 97 days. Not every home sold fast, and the gap between the quickest and slowest parts of the buy box is more than 50 days.

Prices: a mixed picture across the buy box

Some areas held or grew. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows the median sale price in Peoria (85306) rose 6.3% year over year to $425,000. Goodyear (85395) was up 4.6% to $532,500. But prices dipped a little in several other ZIPs. Sun City (85373) fell 9.2% to $327,000. Glendale (85310) slipped 5.1% to $548,000. Litchfield Park (85340) dropped 5.2% to $521,000.

The wider picture: rates and national price cuts

Freddie Mac put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32% as of October 22, 2026. Realtor.com noted that rates climbed above 7% for the first time since January 2025. That matters because it shapes what buyers can afford, and it is part of why Realtor.com also reported that 20.8% of listings nationally had a price cut in September. That is the highest share since October 2022.

Contracts and quick sales: where buyers are still moving

The Real Estate Data Aggregator tracked how many homes went under contract within two weeks of listing. In Glendale (85306), that share was 29.6%, up 5.3 points from a year before. In Peoria (85345), it was 28%. In Phoenix (85083), 27.9%. Compare that with Surprise (85387), where only 8.6% of homes went under contract that quickly. That gap tells you a lot about where buyers feel urgency and where they do not.

What sellers got at closing

The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows sale-to-list ratios held up well in most of the buy box. Glendale (85310) came in at 99.1%. Surprise (85387) was 99.3%. New River (85087) was the softest at 95%, down 2 points from a year before. That means buyers in New River had more room to negotiate than anywhere else in the buy box.

One more thing worth saying: the numbers above are for whole ZIP codes. One street, one neighborhood, even one price range inside a ZIP can read very differently from the overall picture. If you want to know where your home actually sits, send me your address.