Published November 1, 2026 in Market Update

Primary market inventory fell even as sales rose

By Andrew Monaghan

Real estate, Primary market

Here is the one thing that changes what you should do right now. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 3,995 homes sold across the primary market in the three months ending August 31, 2026, up 3.5% from the same months of 2025. At the same time, homes for sale fell 8.6%. More sales, less supply. That gap is what shapes every decision in this market today.

Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.24% on October 29, 2026. That is not a small number. But buyers kept closing deals anyway. The data tells you demand held up even as the cost of borrowing stayed high.

For homeowners, fewer homes for sale means your home faces less competition than it did a year ago. For buyers, it means the pool of choices is smaller, so a clean offer and good timing matter more than they did.

How each community looked

The picture is not the same everywhere. Some communities saw sales jump sharply. Others saw them slip. Prices moved in both directions. Here is how the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted each ZIP code in the three months ending August 31, 2026.

Where prices rose and where they dipped

Waddell led the group. The Real Estate Data Aggregator put the median sale price in ZIP 85355 at $534,077, up 12.2% from a year before. Wittmann (85361) was close behind at $510,000, up 10.9%. Those are meaningful moves.

On the other side, Sun City (85373) saw the steepest drop. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted a median of $327,000 there, down 9.2% from 2025. Litchfield Park (85340) dipped 5.2% to $521,000. Phoenix 85083 fell 4.3% to $630,500. Not every community moved the same direction, and the gap between the top and bottom is wide.

Speed: how fast did homes go under contract?

El Mirage stood out. The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 25% of homes in ZIP 85335 went under contract within two weeks of listing, up 7.6 points from 2025. That is one in four homes moving fast.

Surprise (85379) was close behind at 26.4%, up 8 points. Sun City West (85375) hit 24.7%, up 6 points. These are the communities where a well-priced home is finding a buyer quickly.

Days on market: some ZIP codes moved faster, some slower

El Mirage (85335) had the shortest median time at 50 days, 10 days shorter than a year ago, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Phoenix 85083 came in at 58 days, also 9 days shorter.

Wittmann (85361) took the longest, at 104 days, and that was 39 days longer than 2025. Surprise (85387) sat at 97 days, up 10 days. Not every home in this market sold fast.

What the national picture adds

The National Association of Realtors reported that existing-home sales across the country reached 3.99 million units in September 2026. National inventory rose to 1.60 million homes that same month. Nationally, existing-home prices were up 1.3%.

Here, the primary market moved differently. Local inventory fell 8.6% while national inventory rose. That tells you something specific about demand in this part of the Phoenix area.

Realtor.com reported that active inventory nationally was up 8.0% year over year as of the week ending October 24, 2026. The primary market went the other direction. Fewer choices here than a year ago, not more.

Months of supply: where the market is tightest

Surprise (85378) had just 2 months of supply, down 2.2 months from 2025, according to the Real Estate Data Aggregator. Sun City West (85375) was at 2.3 months, down 0.7. Both of those are tight.

Wittmann (85361) had 5.5 months of supply, the most in the market, though that was down 1.6 months from a year ago. More supply there means buyers have a bit more room to work with.

Above-list sales: El Mirage and Waddell led the way

The Real Estate Data Aggregator found that 22.5% of homes in El Mirage (85335) sold above list price, up 9.1 points from 2025. Waddell (85355) came in at 20.8%. Those are the two communities where competitive offers showed up most often.

Goodyear (85395) was on the other end at 3.1%, down 1 point. Wittmann (85361) was at 4.4%, down 9.9 points. Price and condition still matter in those areas.

One street can read very differently from the whole ZIP code. The numbers above cover wide areas, and your block may be telling a different story entirely. Text me your address and I will pull what sold near you.